Working in the tight margins that we horse players are forced to work with due to huge takeout and other costs, it is important to avoid that bad bet that can wipe out your meager winnings. While you can spend hours poring over your race schedule, past performances, or other data, looking for a good bet, it really isn’t that hard to eliminate a bad bet.
How often have you decided that a horse had no chance of winning, but then, just before race time, you convince yourself to bet on the horse? It happens to all of us at a weak moment of insecurity or indecision. One way to avoid those bad bets is to completely erase the sure losing horse from your mind and sight. If you keep going over the race, even after you’ve made your decision, do something drastic and definitive to avoid endorsing an underdog.
I recommend that you review your schedule and note the horses that have little or no chance of winning. Here are some examples and what to do with them after you’ve identified them. Any first time starter goes long. Maidens rarely win their first race if it is a mile or more.
You can also remove any horse with a low percentage jockey. For the purposes of this system, I call a jockey with a win rate of 7% or less a low percentage jockey. There is a reason the jockey is on that horse and it is not because he or she is displaying brilliant riding skills. When a trainer knows that he has a good chance of winning, he will put a decent jockey in the shackles. With a low-percentage jockey, you’re behind the eighth ball stat to begin with.
Any horse that returns from a long rest and has not shown the ability to win after said rest must also be discarded. Most horses need a race or two to get back into racing condition. Many trainers will tell the jockey to just exercise.
Here’s an angle I’ve used for years. It will eliminate a lot of losers who are betting on ridiculous odds. Of course, you will end up not taking part in any more races, but there is nothing wrong with not taking part in a race if you don’t have a good solid reason to play it. If you find a horse that is being asked to do something it hasn’t done before, pass it by. Must have won at the same distance and class level and preferably on the same track. I can hear the screams now, “What about the Kentucky Derby and other big races where horses try something for the first time?”
While the Kentucky Derby and other such races are fun to watch, if you want to make a living as a horse racer, you better stick with what works and stop trying to be psychic. One way to go broke in horse racing is to bet on horses that have not shown their ability. Betting on horses is risky enough to venture into the unknown.
Once you have circled each horse that fits the description of the horses above, my advice is to put a big x through it and, if that doesn’t stop you from betting on them, ink them over or remove them from your show. whatever it takes to prevent you from wasting your money on bad bets. Eliminating low percentage bets that are usually big bets by the crowd is the best horse racing system in the world.