Imagine what cities would be like without electricity. For many cities this is not fantasy or speculation but a very real possibility.
The networks that provide vital services (electricity, transportation, health, communications, etc.) are interdependent. So if one is interrupted and fails, the others will fail and fall like dominoes, with dire consequences.
Unless solutions can be found to prevent networks from being disrupted, many cities are in for a rude awakening.
Electricity It is carried to consumers by an electrical network consisting of power plants that produce electrical energy, high-voltage transmission lines that carry power from distant sources to demand centers, and distribution lines that connect individual customers.
More recently, electricity grids have been upgraded to become ‘smart grids’ by using information and communications technology to automatically collect and act on information about supplier and consumer behavior.
interruptions. Services that were once handled locally will now have a pervasive ripple effect on other networks.
In cities around the world, people have become dependent on digital networks and their hardware for electricity and other vital services. While this has resulted in efficiencies, it has also created vulnerabilities because critical interdependencies between networks could prove disastrous.
governments they need to maintain law and order when disasters strike, and agencies like the police and the military need to deploy rescue teams and medical aid in coordination with non-governmental agencies like the UN and the Red Cross. This becomes impossible when the networks fail.
Town Administrations face a multitude of critical problems under normal circumstances, including high urban densities, poverty, traffic congestion, pollution, etc. During disasters, these problems are exacerbated.
In 1950, 30% of the world’s population lived in cities. In 2007, this number was more than half. And by 2030 it could reach 60%.
Most will live in megacities (metropolitan areas with more than ten million people). However, many of the world’s megacities are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.
Even in developed countries like Japan, natural disasters could kill thousands, destroy network infrastructure, and leave government and municipal administrations defenseless.
This is what happened when network infrastructures were disrupted by Mother Nature,
Hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the US Gulf Coast in 2005. Failures in one critical section of the network triggered rapid ripple effects in others, leading to a partial or complete breakdown of law and order.
Local communication systems were destroyed and emergency services severely damaged due to increased call volumes as desperate people tried to get help or control people at risk.
Without working communications, government at all levels was deaf, dumb, and blind, trying to make sense of an endlessly confusing and rapidly changing situation.
There were also widespread disruptions to transportation systems that relied on the Internet.
floods. In 2010, a series of flash floods dumped unusually heavy rain in the southern part of Thailand, causing massive devastation and landslides.
Thousands of people were trapped in their flooded homes, with tap water, electricity, landlines and mobile phone systems cut off or severely disrupted. The capital, Bangkok, was particularly affected.
Power was cut leaving the nation in darkness, while banks in the hardest-hit regions were closed and tourists stranded as rail and air services were suspended.
earthquakes. In March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck Japan. The earthquake and resulting tsunami caused extensive and devastating structural damage in Tokyo.
All trains in Tokyo were grounded. Submarine telecommunication lines were severe, and infrastructure damage compromised both land lines and wireless communications.
In addition to the extensive destruction of housing and transportation infrastructure, the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was damaged, creating serious risks of contamination from radioactive emissions.
More than 13,000 people were confirmed dead and 14,600 missing, making this the worst disaster to hit Japan since the 1923 earthquake.
solar storms they occur when activity on the Sun interferes with Earth’s magnetic field. A severe solar storm could damage satellites, power grids around the world, and GPS satellites.
The most severe solar storm on record occurred in 1859. At that time there was little electrical infrastructure worldwide and the storm only sent currents along newly built telegraph systems. If something similar happened today, the world’s high-tech infrastructure would come to a standstill.
In 1989, a solar storm caused a power outage in Quebec, Canada, as well as parts of the northeastern US. In this event, power was lost to over 6 million people for 9 hours.
And in 2011, a solar storm forced airlines to divert flights from the polar regions in anticipation of disruption to their radio communications.
If a massive solar storm were to hit Earth, the impacts could rival or exceed the worst natural disasters humans have ever faced.
networks we trustnot to provide us with essential services are not only vulnerable to Mother Nature. They are also vulnerable to cyber terrorism. Even the supposedly most secure sites are being hacked on a daily basis.
Can we redesign these networks to be resilient to future disruptions?